SSE674Project3-Chapter18

=Part IV - Chapter 18 =

 =1. Write a progressive five-level scenario that illustrates the importance of prevention in daily life. Use any subject that is a routine experience, such as brushing your teeth, driving a car, or saving for retirement.=

> A five level scenario for fire:

>> 1. Do nothing. Fires occur occasionally, and there is nothing we can do about it. This will lead to a disaster; there will be losses in both lives and property.

>> 2. Rely on fire fighters. Fire fighters will be contacted, but what will happen during the time from when someone called them, until they are on the scene of the fire? As in the first situation, there will be losses in both lives and property.

>> 3. Rely on fire extinguishers as a first defense. When a fire is small, it could be put out with fire extinguishers, and prevented from growing. The property will be saved from further losses. There is one problem with this; it has to be known when the fire starts. If everyone is asleep, no one will report the fire in time; this is now situation number two.

>> 4. Use a fire alarm for early fire detection. If alarmed about the fire in its puberty, it could be put out as in situation three. There is still one problem; someone has to hear the alarm. The best situation is not to have a fire in the first place.

>> 5. Use prevention. By preventing fire there is nothing to worry about. Prevention such as: learning that matches are not a toy, heeding advice from Smokey the Bear, and so on. For example, when the city of Reykjavik changed from heating the house by burning fuel to heating the with hot spring water, the fire fighters saw a dramatic decrease in house fires. No burning, no fire!

=2. Explain how a risk scenario removes uncertainty? What do you think happens when you state a risk as though it were a known fact?=

> A risk scenario removes uncertainty by stating a problem and then trying to find a solution. If you correctly identify the risk and then make an appropriate change to the project to resolve it, then you have prevented an issue that may have stopped the project dead in its tracks.

> When you address a risk it is best to look at it like it is a problem that has occurred. By looking at it this way the tea takes the situation more seriously and wants to move past the problem. All risks are difficult to treat like this, however if a select few are done in this manor then the project starts off on better footing.

=3. Explain the factors that cause decisions to be difficult.=

> The biggest risk factor that will cause a decision to be difficult would be something that affects the budget. If you are developing a system that requires a certain amount of processor power but are given a budget that doesn’t meet the hardware needs it is a major problem. The problem revolves around proof that the budgeted hardware doesn’t meet the design processing goals. In this scenario I would make it a critical risk that processors do not support the required processing goals. As the software goes into development phase bench marks can be developed to prove the risk out and give evidence that the processors need to be readdressed. At this point the hardware processors have gone down in price and a reasonable replacement can be found that could be fit in the budget. If that is not the case then a budget increase can be justified by identifying that this risk was an issue and needs to be fixed if the project is to proceed.

=4. Do you think it is important to thin through all seven risk resolution strategies for a given risk? Discuss why you do or do not think so.=

> When coming up with the initial risk resolution strategies it is important to go through all seven. This process gives you an overview of the entire project and makes you touch on all the different areas. At this point you can flesh through each one and decide the severity of each strategy. As each risk strategy is discussed these questions need to be asked to get a well defined picture:

>> a. Complexity. Are there issues that cause this strategy to be complex? Are there multiple alternatives that make this decision difficult? Is there a significant economical consideration of selecting this strategy?

>> b. Uncertainty. Is this strategy high risk? Do the assumptions for choosing this strategy have a high degree of uncertainty? Is the uncertainty based on perceptions of different people?

>> c. Multiple objectives. Are there conflicting goals associated with this strategy? What are the trade-offs in satisfying the objectives? What are the different motivations for or against this strategy?

>> d. Different perspective. Are there alternatives or variations of this strategy that we should consider? What are the different choices that we could make? What conclusions can we make?

=5. When would you use a combination of risk resolution strategies? Explain your answer.=

> The use of combining risk resolution strategies improves different areas of the project, such as technical design. By combining strategies in target areas you can get a more detailed picture of the risk and try to give yourself more information about the problems.

=6. What triggers might you use to provide notification to execute a risk action plan?=

> The most obvious notification is by e-mail. In this day and age almost all data is in some digital form and stored in a database. The database application can be designed to send e-mail notifications to alert key people to adverse conditions. In addition to that reports can be run daily to monitor progress and the forward thinking manager will look for trends and act on an impending risk before the trigger is reached. But, the automated system is only as good as the people entering the data. If the project personnel are not entering the required updates, then triggers and other tools that are looking for trends will never find any.

=7. Discuss the importance of training in risk management measures and metrics.=

> Risk measures provide objective and subjective data that can be used to indicate the level of project risk. Objective data consist of actual data that can be used to indicate the level of project risk. These true counts may cause managers to question their subjective understanding and investigate further. Subjective data are based on an individual’s or group’s belief of a condition. They provide project visibility. Measurements of risk and risk resolution should promote the desired action. For example, proper risk management practices will reward most likely estimates of probability and consequence. Worst-case estimates should not be used because they are not as likely to occur.

> That being said with no training it is difficult to interpret the progress to identify the potential of a problem. Most of the data the manager will get will be subjective and it is through training and experience that will allow the decision maker able to make good recommendations.

=8. Explain the significance of corrective action when you encounter unexpected out comes.=

> When we encounter unexpected outcomes, we can take corrective action as required. Corrective action is different from risk management, because there is no uncertainty. Corrective action is the specific procedure that is needed to solve a known problem; risk management is a general procedure that is needed to resolve a risk. Risk management is the antithesis of corrective action; where one stops, the other begins. Often the answers to questions lead to further questions. The cycle of risk management and corrective action is as constant as night and day.

> When you have the ability to manage risk, does that mean that risk will disappear? No, but it does mean that you will have a measure of control over your outcomes. With the ability to manage risk, you can choose to control existing risk, take on additional risk for potential higher return, or maximize long-term opportunities. Once you have the ability to manage risk, the choice is yours.

=9. With the ability to manage risk, you can choose to control existing risk, take on additional risk for potentially higher return, or maximize long-term opportunities. Once you have the ability to manage risk. What will you do?=

> The answer to this question is dependent upon the project in question. Once you have a good track with risk management you can weigh project efficiency with economic success. A project can be managed to be on time and on budget, however if you establish a track record of finishing ahead of schedule and under budget your services will be sought out. Not every project can be finished ahead of schedule and under budget. However, having the risk management skills it will be easier to identify the projects that this can be done to.

> I think the goal of the risk management expert is to take on projects that can never seem too completed. On large burden is the air traffic control system. This is a project that has global scope and has been plagued with problems to upgrade. To me an expert risk manager will want to take on challenges that will test their ability and knowledge.

=10. Do you think risk is like fire? Discuss why you do or do not think so.=

> I do believe risk is like fire. With proper prevention they can be avoided, however small ones always seem to crop up. You have preventative measures in place to put fires and if you have your people properly trained they can act appropriately when one flares up. If your people aren’t trained and a problem occurs it can quickly grow out of control if they try to hide it or don’t sound the alarm. A simple trashcan fire has the potential to burn the building down. The same with risk management, if an identified risk goes unchecked it can cause problems in other areas and next thing you know the entire project is a failure because of this risk not being addressed.

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